地理与地理信息科学

2022, v.38(01) 138-144

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基于改进证据权重法的北海道地震同震滑坡易发性评价
Susceptibility Evaluation of Hokkaido Earthquake Coseismic Landslides Based on Improved Weights of Evidence Method

周宇;常鸣;孙文静;武彬彬;
ZHOU Yu;CHANG Ming;SUN Wen-jing;WU Bin-bin;State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology;Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences;

摘要(Abstract):

多模型耦合方法被广泛应用于同震滑坡易发性评价研究,但耦合证据权重法和其他方法的改进型证据权重法鲜有涉及。该文以北海道地震震中区为研究区,基于震前和震后高精度遥感影像解译出5 977处同震滑坡(以中小型为主),选取高程、坡度、距断层距离、距水系距离等8个滑坡易发性评价因子,对同震滑坡的空间分布规律和控制因子进行分析,发现同震滑坡集中发育在距断层小于5 km、距水系小于800 m、峰值地面加速度(PGA)0.5 g、高程90~250 m、坡度20°~40°、坡向东至东南向、岩性以页岩和砾岩为主的区域内;基于改进型证据权重法,综合考虑地形、地质和水文条件对北海道同震滑坡易发性进行评价,经ROC曲线评价模型验证,发现改进模型曲线下面积(AUC)为0.916,较原模型(AUC为0.870)精度有明显提高。改进模型能为同震滑坡易发性评价提供新的研究思路,并为震后区域防灾减灾提供科学依据。
The multi-model coupling method is widely used in the susceptibility evaluation of coseismic landslides, but the coupled and the improved weights of evidence methods are rarely involved.In this paper, based on the high precision remote sensing images before and after the Hokkaido earthquake, 5 977 coseismic landslides(mainly small and medium-sized coseismic landslides) were interpreted.And eight susceptibility influence factors such as elevation, slope and aspect were selected to analyze the spatial distribution of coseismic landslides.It is found that the coseismic landslides were concentrated in the area less than 5 km away from the fault, 800 m away from the river system, with significant peak ground acceleration(PGA) of 0.5 g, elevation of 90~250 m, slope of 20°~40°,aspect of east to southeast, and dominated by shale and conglomerate.Based on the improved weights of evidence method, the susceptibility of coseismic landslides of Hokkaido earthquake was evaluated by comprehensively considering the three major factors: topography, geology and hydrology.It is proved that the AUC of the improved model is 0.916,which is more accurate than that of the original model(AUC is 0.870).It can provide new research idea for evaluating coseismic landslide susceptibility and supply a scientific basis for regional disaster prevention and mitigation after the earthquake.

关键词(KeyWords): 北海道地震;同震滑坡;易发性评价;证据权重法
Hokkaido earthquake;coseismic landslide;susceptibility evaluation;weights of evidence method

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(U21A2032、42077245);; 第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究任务(2021QZKK0201);; 四川省科技厅重点研发计划项目(2020YFS0387)

作者(Authors): 周宇;常鸣;孙文静;武彬彬;
ZHOU Yu;CHANG Ming;SUN Wen-jing;WU Bin-bin;State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection,Chengdu University of Technology;Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Earth Surface Process,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences;

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