地理与地理信息科学

2021, v.37(04) 72-80

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基于参数最优地理探测器的江西省山洪灾害时空格局与驱动力研究
Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Driving Factors of Flash Flood Disasters in Jiangxi Province Analyzed by Optimal Parameters-Based Geographical Detector

张若婧;陈跃红;张晓祥;方秀琴;马强;任立良;
ZHANG Ruo-jing;CHEN Yue-hong;ZHANG Xiao-xiang;FANG Xiu-qin;MA Qiang;REN Li-liang;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research;

摘要(Abstract):

江西省是我国山洪灾害严重的省份之一,但目前缺乏对该省山洪灾害时空格局和驱动因子全面系统的研究。该文根据全国山洪灾害调查项目江西省1950-2015年山洪灾害数据集,对江西省山洪灾害时间分布特征、空间分布规律、主要影响因子分布趋势与灾害重心迁移格局进行挖掘;在此基础上,运用参数最优地理探测器对降雨和地形两种连续型因子生成最优离散化因子,分别探测江西省全域范围和流域范围山洪灾害的主要驱动因子及作用机制。结果表明:全域范围江西省降雨因子解释力明显强于地形因子,其中历时短、重现期长的10 min强降雨对山洪灾害的解释力最强,且在特定地形条件与降雨交互作用后呈非线性增强;流域范围降雨多为山洪灾害的主导因子,但各流域的降雨主导因子差异明显,地形因子解释力更强,多数流域最大交互作用的双因子为降雨与地形因子,表明流域内因降雨和地形产生明显的山洪灾害空间分异特征。研究结果可为山洪灾害区划、防治等研究提供科学依据。
Jiangxi Province is one of the most severe flash flood regions in China.However, there is a lack of comprehensive and systematic analysis on the spatial-temporal pattern and driving factors of historical flash flood disasters in Jiangxi Province.According to the first historical flash flood hazards survey dataset in China from 1950 to 2015,this study firstly explored the spatial-temporal pattern of flash flood disasters in Jiangxi Province from three aspects: temporal variation, spatial distribution, trend and transfer characteristics.Meanwhile, the main driving factors and interactions of flash flood disasters for the whole province and each watershed are detected from both rainfall and topography by the optimal parameters-based geographical detector, which used the optimal combination of discretization methods and discontinuous numbers of continuous variables and generated more optimal discreated variables from the continuous variables.The results are as follows.1) For Jiangxi Province, the driving factor of rainfall(especially the short duration heavy rainfall within 10 minutes at long return period) on flash flood disasters is significantly stronger than that of terrain and the short duration heavy rainfall combined with specific terrain can enhance the occurrence of flash flood disasters nonlinearly.2) Compared with the whole Jiangxi Province, rainfall is still the dominant factor for flash flood disasters in most watersheds.But, the main driving factors of rainfall vary in watersheds and the importance of terrain is stronger than that in the whole Jiangxi Province.The most important result of the interaction detector is the interaction of both rainfall and terrain in most watersheds, which highlights the clear heterogeneity of the spatial distribution of flash flood disasters within the watersheds.The spatial-temporal pattern and driving factor analysis of flash flood disasters in Jiangxi Province can provide a valuable decision-making support for the flash flood regionalization and prevention.

关键词(KeyWords): 山洪灾害;时空格局;驱动因子;参数最优地理探测器;江西省
flash flood disaster;spatial-temporal pattern;driving factor;optimal parameters-based geographical detector;Jiangxi Province

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基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510601);; 国家自然科学基金项目(42071315);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项项目(B210202008)

作者(Author): 张若婧;陈跃红;张晓祥;方秀琴;马强;任立良;
ZHANG Ruo-jing;CHEN Yue-hong;ZHANG Xiao-xiang;FANG Xiu-qin;MA Qiang;REN Li-liang;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University;Research Center on Flood and Drought Disaster Reduction,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research;

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