地理与地理信息科学

2021, v.37(04) 16-21

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基于历史预警准确率的时空重排扫描最大扫描半径优化方法
An Optimization Method for Maximum Scanning Radius of Spatiotemporal Rearrangement Scan Based on Historical Warning Accuracy

张亚楠;龙华;邵玉斌;杜庆治;陈腾飞;
ZHANG Ya-nan;LONG Hua;SHAO Yu-bin;DU Qing-zhi;CHEN Teng-fei;School of Information Engineering and Automation,Kunming University of Science and Technology;

摘要(Abstract):

时空重排扫描统计方法因不需考虑人口数据即可进行时空扫描分析而应用广泛,最大扫描半径是影响时空重排扫描统计方法性能的重要参数,其设置过大会增加运算时间。该文提出基于历史预警准确率的时空重排扫描最大扫描半径优化方法:根据历史时空数据集的同期均值确定异常点,通过二分法选取并迭代不同最大扫描半径,进而对历史时空数据集进行回顾性时空重排扫描统计;根据不同扫描半径得到的扫描结果预警准确率,选取预警准确率最高的最大扫描半径作为前瞻性扫描分析的最大扫描半径。结果表明:该方法在保证预警准确率的同时,可缩短时空重排扫描统计方法耗时,优化了时空重排扫描统计方法的性能。基于旧金山地区火灾数据集验证了该方法的有效性。
The spatiotemporal rearrangement scan statistic method has been widely used because it can carry out spatiotemporal scanning analysis without considering demographic data.The maximum scanning radius is an important parameter that affects the performance of the spatiotemporal rearrangement scan statistic method, but its setting value is too large to increase the operation time.To solve this problem, this paper proposes an optimization method for the maximum scanning radius of spatiotemporal rearrangement scan based on historical warning accuracy.According to the mean value of the historical spatiotemporal data set over the same period, the outliers are determined, and different maximum scanning radii are selected and iterated by dichotomy for retrospective spatiotemporal rearrangement scan statistics of the historical spatiotemporal data set.According to the early warning accuracy of scanning results obtained from different scanning radii, the maximum scanning radius with the highest warning accuracy is selected as the maximum scanning radius of prospective scanning analysis.This method not only guarantees the early warning accuracy, but also reduces the operation time of the spatiotemporal rearrangement scan statistic method, and optimizes the performance of the spatiotemporal rearrangement scan statistic method.Based on the fire data set in San Francisco area, the validity of the method is verified.

关键词(KeyWords): 时空重排扫描;最大扫描半径;预警准确率;二分法
spatiotemporal rearrangement scan;maximum scanning radius;early warning accuracy;dichotomy

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基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(61761025)

作者(Author): 张亚楠;龙华;邵玉斌;杜庆治;陈腾飞;
ZHANG Ya-nan;LONG Hua;SHAO Yu-bin;DU Qing-zhi;CHEN Teng-fei;School of Information Engineering and Automation,Kunming University of Science and Technology;

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