地理与地理信息科学

中国省际铁路货运网络是支撑资源调配和经济协调的战略性基础设施，解析其时空演化规律对提升运输效率和促进区域协调发展意义重大。本文运用非负张量分解(NTF)及负二项回归模型分析1998—2023年中国省际铁路货运网络的时空演化特征及影响因素。研究发现：(1)NTF分解的6个主分量时序特征表现为双峰波动上升、双峰低速上升、“N”形快速上升和多阶段波动下降4类；空间特征呈现以能源、资源区为核心，向主要工业基地或经济圈(带)辐射的稳定结构。(2)中国省际铁路货运网络的演化经历东部扩张、全面重构和中西部崛起三阶段，这一演化过程与国家区域发展战略的实施进程相一致。(3)中国省际铁路货运网络的发展受多因素综合作用，地理邻近、产业协同、社会关联、经济与能源差异、对外贸易开放度及铁路营业里程是正向驱动因素；铁路路网密度在流出地呈促进作用，在流入地则呈抑制作用；公路与水路货运市场份额的作用与铁路路网密度相反。

The inter-provincial rail freight transport network in China serves as a strategic infrastructure for resource allocation and economic coordination.Understanding its spatio-temporal evolution is critical for improving transportation efficiency and promoting coordinated regional development.In this study, non-negative tensor factorization(NTF) and a negative binomial regression model are employed to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of China′s inter-provincial rail freight transport network from 1998 to 2023.It is found as follows.(1) Six principal components extracted from NTF exhibit four distinct temporal patterns: two-peak fluctuating growth, two-peak slow growth, N-shaped rapid growth, and multi-stage fluctuating decline.Spatially, the network displays a stable structure, with energy and resource-rich regions as the cores that radiate towards major industrial bases or economic circles(belts).(2) The evolution of the inter-provincial rail freight transport network in China has undergone three stages: initial expansion in the eastern region, a phase of comprehensive restructuring, and subsequent rise in the central and western regions.This progression highly conforms to the implementation of the national regional development strategy.(3) The inter-provincial rail freight transport network in China is influenced by multiple factors.Geographical proximity, industrial synergy, social connectivity, economic and energy differences, foreign trade openness, and railway operating mileage are all positive driving factors.In contrast, railway network density promotes the development of the network in outflow areas, yet inhibits it in inflow areas, while the effects of road and waterway freight market share exhibit the opposite pattern.