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正确处理地缘政治风险与国防开支的关系是实现国家“安全—发展”平衡的关键。本文以新兴经济体国家为研究对象，运用异速增长模型、最优参数地理探测器、灰色关联度分析等方法探讨2004—2024年新兴经济体国家地缘政治风险与国防开支的异速增长关系及其形成机制。研究结果表明：(1)研究期内新兴经济体国家地缘政治风险与国防开支空间格局高度相似且稳定性较强，二者异速增长关系沿着“风险防控平衡型—风险增长偏弱型—风险防控平衡型”的路径变化；(2)空间上，以负异速增长为主，中国和俄罗斯为向下变动型，印度和印度尼西亚等国为逐级向上型；(3)能源风险(能源贸易平衡指数)与粮食风险(农业原材料进口)是核心影响因素，政治风险与异速关系的灰色关联度最高，其异速关系形成机制是以能源与粮食风险为主导、政治经济因素为辅并由多重因素共同驱动的复合作用结果。
Abstract：Accurately managing the relationship between geopolitical risk and defense expenditure is essential for achieving a balanced "security-development" strategy.Focusing on emerging economies, this study employs an allometric growth model, an optimal-parameter geographical detector, and grey relational analysis to examine the allometric growth relationship between geopolitical risk and defense expenditure from 2004 to 2024,as well as its underlying formation mechanisms.It is found as follows.(1) The spatial patterns of geopolitical risk and defense expenditure across emerging economies are highly similar and exhibit strong stability.The allometric growth relationship between geopolitical risk and defense expenditure in emerging economies evolves along the trajectory of "risk prevention and control equilibrium → weak risk-growth bias → risk prevention and control equilibrium".(2) Spatially, negative allometric growth dominates.China and Russia display a downward-shifting pattern, whereas countries such as India and Indonesia show a stepwise upward pattern.(3) Energy risk(energy trade balance index) and food risk(imports of agricultural raw materials) are the core influencing factors.Political risk exhibits the highest grey relational degree with the allometric relationship.Overall, the formation mechanism of the allometric growth relationship is a composite outcome driven by multiple factors, with energy and food risks playing a dominant role and political and economic factors serving as supplementary forces.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:E11;K901.4;F811.4
引用信息:
[1]毕世鸿,钱镜帆.地缘政治风险与国防开支的异速关系及其形成机制[J].地理与地理信息科学,2026,42(04):45-53.
基金信息:
国家社科基金中国历史研究院重大历史问题研究专项2023年度重大招标项目“东南亚现代国家发展历史”(23VLS026); 云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目“现实制度主义下日本对东盟国家的港口基建战略及应对策略研究”(2026Y0035)
2026-06-26
2026-06-26
2026-06-26